Llatria

pump.fun for USD prediction markets

Fintech

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What Llatria is Llatria is a platform for user-created prediction markets on CFTC-regulated event contracts. Anyone can list a market with a clear yes/no question and a public resolution source. Markets trade on a constant-product bonding curve until they reach $10,000 in cumulative volume, at which point they graduate to Kalshi's central limit order book — where real money and real liquidity live. If you've seen **pump.fun** in the crypto world, the shape is familiar: a low-friction creator layer that bootstraps liquidity for new markets, with an automatic graduation to a deeper, regulated venue once the market proves real demand. Llatria is that model for CFTC event contracts. ## Who it's for Three audiences use the same product differently. **Creators** want to put questions into the world. A political junkie who thinks the 2028 primaries will go sideways. A sports writer who wants to host season-long contests for their audience. A local journalist testing whether their city's mayoral race will actually be close. Llatria is the cheapest way to list a market — under a dollar in fees to launch — and a way to earn 0.5% of every trade on that market for as long as it runs. **Early traders** want price discovery they can participate in. The bonding curve gives them a market to trade before institutional volume shows up. Early movers on a thesis that eventually graduates capture the spread between pre-graduation bonding-curve prices and post-graduation order-book prices. **Liquidity traders** arrive after graduation. They prefer a central limit order book with tight spreads and deep liquidity, which is exactly what graduation delivers on the Kalshi side. ## Why now Four things have converged over the past few years that make this category viable: 1. **Kalshi's CFTC designation** (November 2020) created the first domestic regulated venue for event contracts. The market structure for legal prediction markets now exists. 2. **Polymarket** demonstrated massive latent demand — $10B+ in cumulative volume, most of which sat offshore of US regulation. That demand is looking for a legal home. 3. **Kalshi's 2024 legal victory** confirming the right to list political event contracts unlocked the single most culturally resonant category for US users. 4. **The creator economy pattern** — low-friction listing, automatic graduation to depth once demand is proven — has been validated by crypto (pump.fun → Raydium) and by content platforms (Substack → Kindle Direct). The space is ready. The creator layer isn't built. Llatria fills that gap. ## The mechanic The two-phase structure is the product's defining idea. ### Phase 1 — the bonding curve When a creator launches a market, they put up a small seed ($10–$50) and choose an initial probability (1–99%). That seed funds a constant-product pool (`x × y = k` — the same math that underlies Uniswap) split between YES and NO shares. Traders buy either side directly from the curve; prices move automatically as shares are extracted. No order matching, no market maker, no counterparty — the pool itself is the market. Fees are split three ways: 1% to the platform, 0.5% to the creator, and 0.5% retained in the pool as liquidity growth. Creators earn on every trade on their market, forever. ### Phase 2 — graduation When cumulative trading volume on a market crosses $10,000, the pool freezes. A worker process migrates the market to Kalshi: mints a real Kalshi market, translates every curve position into Kalshi-side contracts at the user's cost basis, and transitions the market from `ACTIVE` to `GRADUATED` state. From that moment forward, trading happens on Kalshi's central limit order book. Llatria continues to surface the market in its catalog and collects a partner rev-share. A creator who launches a market that graduates is holding the economic equivalent of an early equity position — they captured fees on the first $10k of volume at 0.5% (potentially earning $50 on their seed) plus earn ongoing rev-share on every post-graduation trade. ## The dual-path strategy Llatria is a technology platform. To move real money, it needs to sit behind, or become, a regulated entity. There are two paths, and Llatria is pursuing a plan that takes the best of each. **Near term — partner with Kalshi.** Llatria rides Kalshi's DCM designation. Users have Kalshi accounts (via partner API); Kalshi holds funds, runs KYC, handles settlement. Llatria earns rev-share on trading fees for markets that originate on its platform. Time to live: 3–6 months if Kalshi cooperates. Capital required: $100k–$500k. **Long term — become a DCM.** Llatria pursues its own CFTC designation, a 3+ year process. Kalshi spent roughly 3.5 years getting theirs. At the end, Llatria owns the full stack and captures full economics. Capital required: $5–10M. The realistic plan is both, sequentially. Partner with Kalshi to reach real users quickly, build volume and traction, raise a Series A on that evidence, and use the capital to execute a multi-year DCM path. [`03 Strategic Paths.md`](./03%20Strategic%20Paths.md) walks through the trade-offs in detail. ## Status The product is built and deployed in alpha. [llatria.carbonaromedia.com](https://llatria.carbonaromedia.com) is live. [`02 Current State.md`](./02%20Current%20State.md) is the ground-truth description of what works and what is demo. Headline facts: - Full stack shipped: bonding-curve math, trade execution, settlement, catalog integration with Kalshi's ~30,000 live markets, real-time price feeds, search, creator dashboard - 76+ backend tests, 58 frontend tests, comprehensive four-phase code review completed - Running on a single Hetzner VM (Germany), deployed via systemd + Caddy + Let's Encrypt - All money movement is play-money today. Real money is gated on the Kalshi partnership or an eventual DCM. ## Team Llatria is founded by **Anthony Carbonaro** — solo founder, currently both CEO and sole engineer. Product, strategy, and execution are a single-person operation through the alpha phase. First hires targeted post-seed: regulatory counsel (likely via Bandman Advisors), a senior engineer, and eventually a Head of Regulatory Strategy for the Phase 2 DCM path. Carbonaro Media LLC is the operating entity. ## What we're asking for The immediate asks depend on the audience. **From regulatory counsel (Bandman Advisors, others):** guidance on the CFTC posture, the Phase 1 tech-layer framing, and the DCM application roadmap. Willingness to engage as Llatria's outside regulatory partner. **From Kalshi:** a conversation about a partner / OAuth API, a bulk market-creation endpoint for graduation, and a commercial agreement covering rev-share. **From investors:** pre-seed / seed capital sized to an 18-month runway covering the Kalshi partnership engagement, initial legal work, and the first operational hires. Target raise: $750k–$1.5M at pre-seed terms. **From accelerators (YC, a16z CSX, FinTech Innovation Lab):** capital, network, and brand for both the regulatory conversation and the Series A. ## Narrative summary The CFTC's 2020 designation of Kalshi and the 2024 Circuit Court victory on political contracts opened a regulated US market for event contracts. Kalshi built the first venue and captured the first wave of users. The next wave is creator-originated markets — questions nobody's thought to list yet, priced by the people who care about them, graduating to institutional liquidity when they earn it. That's the product surface area Llatria occupies. The hard problems in this space are not technical. They are regulatory and partnership-shaped. Llatria's technical foundation is shipped and proven. The work ahead is the regulatory work — and Llatria is opening those conversations now.