Meridian Allocation

Classifying macro regimes instead of predicting markets

Investing

I started building Meridian because I was tired of the amount of noise involved in investing. There is always another stock pick, market call, chart, newsletter, or trade competing for attention. Most of it demands constant monitoring. I did not have the time for that, and I did not want to build my process around the same short-term stock-picking culture that dominates much of the internet. I wanted something more disciplined. A process I could follow monthly. A process that did not depend on reacting faster than everyone else. A process that did not require me to form a strong opinion on every company, headline, Fed meeting, or economic release. My first instinct was still too prediction-heavy. I spent too much time trying to work out what inflation, growth, rates, and markets would do next. The problem was that the process remained subjective. It was difficult to repeat, difficult to test, and too easy to change when the market became uncomfortable. Over time, the approach shifted from prediction to classification. Instead of asking what will happen next, Meridian asks: What environment are we in now? What does the portfolio depend on? How should exposure change if growth or inflation conditions change? The framework now classifies four broad regimes and translates them into monthly portfolio weights across equities, Treasuries, commodities, gold, and cash. I added confirmation rules because immediate signal changes created too much whipsaw. I separated the raw regime from the confirmed regime so new information could be acknowledged without forcing the portfolio to react to every change. I added volatility and drawdown controls because identifying the regime is not enough if the portfolio is still carrying too much risk. And I treated cash as a formal allocation rather than unused capital. The inspiration came from wanting a process closer to institutional allocation and further away from internet trading culture. Not more picks. Not more predictions. Not more screens. A clear set of rules, a monthly decision, and a record of why the portfolio changed. That is what Meridian is trying to provide. The individual components are not new. The difference is the discipline of putting them into one visible process that can be reviewed over time. I would value feedback on the methodology, the confirmation logic, and whether the monthly decision record is clear enough to challenge and audit.