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Convexly
Skill or luck? Check any Polymarket wallet in 30 seconds
Paste any Polymarket wallet address. Get calibration (Brier score), position sizing diagnostics, concentration risk, and Edge Score against our 8,656-wallet reference cohort. Free, no signup.
I built this because every Polymarket leaderboard ranks wallets by profit, and profit is mostly survivorship. One lucky whale bet looks identical to skill until you put an interval around it.
The analyzer reads a wallet's resolved record only. Realized edge with a bootstrapped 95% interval, clustered by event so 50 positions on one election night don't count as 50 independent bets. Below 30 resolved positions it refuses to call anyone skilled, which annoys people, and that's kind of the point. We ran our own published top-50 leaderboard through the same bar and most wallets didn't clear it. That result is on the site and it stays there.
Free, no signup. Paste a wallet, argue with the verdict. If the method is wrong somewhere I want to know, the methodology pages are public.
About Convexly on Product Hunt
“Skill or luck? Check any Polymarket wallet in 30 seconds”
Convexly was submitted on Product Hunt and earned 0 upvotes and 2 comments, placing #50 on the daily leaderboard. Paste any Polymarket wallet address. Get calibration (Brier score), position sizing diagnostics, concentration risk, and Edge Score against our 8,656-wallet reference cohort. Free, no signup.
On the analytics side, Convexly competes within Investing, Crypto and Data & Analytics — topics that collectively have 72k followers on Product Hunt. The dashboard above tracks how Convexly performed against the three products that launched closest to it on the same day.
Who hunted Convexly?
Convexly was hunted by Convexly. A “hunter” on Product Hunt is the community member who submits a product to the platform — uploading the images, the link, and tagging the makers behind it. Hunters typically write the first comment explaining why a product is worth attention, and their followers are notified the moment they post. Around 79% of featured launches on Product Hunt are self-hunted by their makers, but a well-known hunter still acts as a signal of quality to the rest of the community. See the full all-time top hunters leaderboard to discover who is shaping the Product Hunt ecosystem.
For a complete overview of Convexly including community comment highlights and product details, visit the product overview.
Convexly